Why Invading Gaza Would Spell Disaster: The Implications for Israel
Hamas will create a violent insurgency that will bleed Israeli resources
Two weeks have passed since Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel. Since then, Israel’s relentless retribution has caused a humanitarian nightmare for Gaza's population. Anger and despair fuel both sides of the border, as diplomats search for solutions to de-escalate the violence in the Middle East. The Israeli army risks getting drawn into a futile situation, with mass civilian casualties likely.
Clausewitz's war strategy focuses on three key objectives: overcoming the enemy's armed power, taking possession of material and other sources of strength, and winning public support (Westpoint.edu). Outside of Israel, public support is limited, and the world’s media continues to report mass protests in support of Palestinians.
The Hamas-Israeli war has spilled beyond Gaza's borders, raising tensions across Europe and the wider Middle East. According to Politico, France is home to the world’s third-largest Jewish population and Europe’s largest Muslim population. The situation in Gaza presents a significant political challenge for President Macron.
In the UK, the Metropolitan Police report a surge in hate crimes. Islamophobic offenses in the capital have risen by 140%, with a 1,350% increase in hate crimes against Jewish people (Guardian).
Drawing upon my experience in hostile environments, I advocate for Israel to shift towards a cessation of hostilities. Effective military leaders draw valuable lessons from history.
The most effective military leaders draw valuable lessons from the annals of history
On a one-to-one basis, Hamas is no match Israel’s army. However, possessing a well-established military doesn't mitigate against severe losses on the battlefield. Military leaders must learn lessons from previous conflicts. Over 58,000 American lives were lost in Vietnam, with some two million civilians, and over one million Viet Cong, according to Britannia.
The United States and Britain suffered terrible losses in Iraq and Afghanistan, along with thousands of civilian casualties. Persistent challenges such as fratricide and IEDs caused significant troop casualties. These challenges will likely affect Israel’s operations in Gaza.
Similar to Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, mission creep and counterinsurgency operations are significant risks. The 2003 Iraq invasion was intended as a short-term commitment, but Bush, Blair, and their advisors failed to understand Iraq's complex dynamics, leading to a prolonged and costly conflict.
For humanity and regional security, President Netanyahu must avoid Bush and Blair’s mistakes. He has the authority to halt the IDF’s indiscriminate attacks on Gaza and recognize that the situation has global implications. Mobilizing 350,000 troops will not prevent IDF casualties or deter a Hamas-led counterinsurgency and the threat of a proxy war.
Urban warfare in Gaza, with its extensive tunnel network, presents a multi-dimensional nightmare for the IDF. Hamas, trained by groups like Hezbollah and the Iranian Republican Guard, will use insurgency tactics against a conventional army.
The Battle for Mosul (2016-2017) offers crucial insights into urban warfare. Despite enhanced intelligence, ISIL held on to heavily defended enclaves for months, drawing Iraqi and coalition forces into a protracted war of attrition.
Moving beyond media reports, a serious study of the battle reveals five counterintuitive or surprising operational lessons
It is impossible to isolate a modern city.
Difficulty increases with depth and duration.
Attackers lose the initiative once they enter the city.
Dense urban terrain enhances sustainment.
Operational reach is proportional to population support.
The IDF faces a similar scenario if it invades Gaza. Hamas can strengthen its defensive positions, causing the IDF to commit more resources. Adhering to International Humanitarian Law, IDF commanders must identify hostile targets while ethically processing displaced civilians.
Extended deployments present psychological and physical challenges for soldiers. Command and control depend on robust, encrypted communications. Smartphone technology can be a vulnerability, as seen in Ukraine.
A ground offensive in Gaza will seem insurmountable. Israel must be prepared for a protracted proxy war, avoiding unnecessary civilian suffering. Any hostile IDF actions in Gaza will have political consequences and likely strengthen Iran and its allies' resolve to destroy Israel.
Featured image by Levi Meir Clancy on Unsplash