2 Part special on the War in Ukraine: Reflecting on 12 months of conflict
There is no sign to an end in hostilities as Russia prepares to up the ante in Ukraine
Fierce fighting continues between Ukrainian and Russian forces as world leaders marked the first anniversary of the war. In this edition of the Woz Report, I will reflect on 12 months of fighting since Vladimir Putin gave the order to execute his ‘Special Operation’. In Part Two, I will discuss what the next 12 months might look like.
The War in Ukraine - 12 Month Recap
Russia’s illegal war has achieved nothing. The first shots fired by Russian troops proceeded mass displacement of civilians, diplomatic and political unrest between NATO and the Kremlin, and thousands of Russian and Ukrainian memorial services.
Indiscriminate Russian bombing has flattened homes, schools, hospitals, commercial and industrial zones. In 12 months of fighting, Ukraine has endured a constant disruption of electricity and water supplies. Evidence of war crimes continues to pour out of a nation ravaged by a totalitarian war. Heavy sanctions placed on Russia by the United States, Britain and the EU have not deterred Putin from swinging his hammer and sickle across Eastern Ukraine.
There are no sign of end to hostilities. As Russia mobilises hundreds of thousands ambivalently led Russians, President Zelensky continues to rally the West for military aid.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to assess that Russia lacks the combat power and resources needed to sustain its new offensive operations in Ukraine.
Hybrid warfare is not new, and active cyber campaigns continue, with the aim of taking down infrastructure and disrupting business-as-usual activities. The information war is in full flow, with the aim of misleading citizens and soldiers alike.
Putin’s futile plan to weaponise food and energy
Any plans by the Kremlin to weaponise food and energy faltered. On 3rd March 2022, Brent Crude rose to $127.98 a barrel, but since mid-June, the price has tumbled to $81.21. Russia and Ukraine historically produce 30 percent of the world’s wheat, and according to Market Watch, wheat prices fell from a high of 1,294¢ down to 750.50¢, the lowest price since October 2021. The West has not starved, and Ukrainian exports of wheat continue.
Throughout the winter, warmer temperatures maintained natural gas supplies, aiding Western Europe’s ability to survive without Russian imports.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine faltered from day one
Instead of a Russian blitz across the plains of Ukraine, its ill-disciplined army has suffered thousands of casualties. Equipment care is vital to the success of any army, but from day one, journalists captured images of broken down Russian armour. A combination of poor combat logistics and a lack of engineering knowledge inhibited the Russian advance, handing the momentum to Ukraine’s defence forces.
“In its daily intelligence briefing Friday 25th February , the U.K.’s Defense Ministry said the Russian armed forces and private military contractors fighting alongside them as paramilitary forces had lost 40,000 to 60,000 troops and suffered up to 200,000 casualties, which includes troops killed or wounded in action.” Wall Street Journal.
A Smorgasbord Of Troops on Ukrainian territory
The Kremlin’s organic army is neither equipped nor tactically capable of prosecuting Putin’s illegitimate war. Russia’s army is reliant on support from the Wagner Group, allegedly financed by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (ICRGC).
The 2014 established Wagner group, a private ghostly mercenary army, sounds imposing. In reality, Wagner is neither invincible nor well equipped. Wagner forces compete with the Russian army for resources and they have suffered thousands of casualties. It appears Putin played his hand with Wagner because of the group’s success in Africa. However, when Wagner conducted its assault on Bakhmut, it faced a determined army sponsored by NATO weapons, and not the poorly trained forces it defeated in Central Africa.
It did not take long for Russia to realise they were fighting a war of attrition and Moscow became desperate to ‘bolster’ its front lines by recruiting prisoners into its ranks. Thousands of Russian protestors took to the streets of Moscow to protest against Putin’s decision to ramp up conscription. Veterans and prisoners also joined Wagner’s ranks.
Panic recruitment is flawed because it can take a soldier two to three years to become competent on the battlefield. A competent soldier must master three basic battlefield skills; to shoot, to operate a radio, and have a good understanding of battlefield first aid. Sending skilled operators to the front line has been a problem for both Russia and Ukraine.
Iran did not need an excuse to fight a proxy war with the West. In October, Tehran upped the ante by providing Russia with a supply of flying Improvised Explosive Devices, often referred to as suicide drones to ballistic missiles. ICRGC members also consulted with Russians on how to conduct battlefield Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs).
Ukrainian defences had a lot of success in destroying Russian armour with Britain’s formidable Next Generation Light Anti-Tank (NLAW). UK Defence analysts estimate Russia has lost half of its armour since the invasion. Despite having access to western artillery guns, Ukraine’s forces have had their problems.
The ‘Gunnery problem’ is an indiscriminate on the battlefield. Ensuring a projectile achieves its desired effect on the target, means ensuring the weapon system is functional. According to the New York Times, a third of Ukraine’s artillery is continually offline because of continual use. Battlefield and second-line maintenance is required to keep weapon platforms serviceable. Ukraine’s military planners must also navigate supply chain challenges, in the form of munitions.
Mass displacement of Ukrainian citizens
Soldiers aren’t the only casualties of war. From day one of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian civilians fled to Western Europe. Hundreds of thousands of children have lost their childhood and the trauma of conflict may never be measured.
The psychological trauma suffered does not just come from military action. According to the International Rescue Committee (IRC), women are highly vulnerable from sexual assault, with abuse on the rise.
We are noticing higher levels of gender-based violence, that is related to displacement. So support networks are not there and levels of stress among all members of the community, unfortunately, sometimes manifests itself in gender-based violence. So in collective shelters we’re noticing higher levels of that, as well as having cases referred to us. Marysia Zapasnik, IRC, via The Guardian.
At the time of writing, Germany’s Leopard 2 main battle tank has made its way to the Ukrainian defence forces. Politically, China has become vocal and appears to be preparing for peace talks.
Nothing can prepare a soldier for the psychological horrors of conflict. Putin sent Russian troops to battle fuelled on vodka and without maps. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs applies to everyone, and troops have endured the scarcity of sleep, food, water and shelter on the front line.
Will the Russian president learn from the mistakes of 12 months of war? It’s unlikely because learning lessons would mean withdrawing his limited forces from Ukraine and settling for peace. That scenario seems like a decade away. In part 2, I will discuss what the next 12 months might look like for Ukraine, Russia, and the wider political heavyweights striving to prevent the war in Eastern Europe spreading.
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