US Support for Ukraine should not wane
The Hamas-Israel conflict has overshadowed Russia's invasion of Ukraine
If you haven't intentionally disconnected from digital media, you're probably well-informed about the recent unrest in the Middle East. 24 hours before President Joe Biden's planned visit to Israel, Ukraine Special Forces (Ukr Sf) launched a raid on Russian airfields, resulting in the destruction of several rotary-wing aircraft, as reported by Politico. Russia's military losses serve as a stark reminder that a persistent conflict continues on the eastern borders of Europe.
Ukraine, once the hottest topic on the airwaves is drowned out by war between Israel and Hamas. Until last Saturday, President Zelenskyy had an open channel to NATO members. That’s arguably no longer the case, as NATO leaders tilt their heads in the direction of the Middle East.
The political landscape for the current US President is complex. The 2024 presidential election is underway, with 12 Republicans and three Democrats in the race. While there's a considerable distance to cover in the US Presidential race, it's highly probable that President Biden will once again go head-to-head with Former President Donald Trump, just as they did in 2020."
At the time of writing, a vital branch of the US Government is crippled, because it has no speaker at The House of Representatives. Jim Jordan might be the frontrunner for the house, but according to the Republicans against Trump, 13 republicans voted against him.
In this political manoeuvring, Former President Trump has the opportunity to scrutinise every action taken by President Biden. The more the Biden administration concentrates on the Middle East conflict, the more material Trump's campaign will have to argue that the Democrats are being too lenient on Moscow, or too aggressive in the Middle East.
The United States has allocated more than €60 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia's invasion, but the question remains: how much commitment does the American public still have for a conflict in a distant land? Opinion polls reveal a slim majority in favour of ongoing support for Ukraine.
The escalation between Israel and Hamas might play into President Putin's interests. According to Josh Rogin of the Washington Times, Moscow has little interest in helping Israel. Russia can use the conflict in Gaza to side with Hamas and its patron, Iran — in part to undermine the United States and its allies. The Ukrainian resistance claims Wagner trained Hamas in combat, also known as Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTP).
The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine. Institute for the Study of War
According to research by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, suggests the Republican leadership favours an ‘America-First’ lens. Key findings from the report states 6-in-10 think the United States should play an active role in world affairs, down from 7-in-10 five years ago.
The council’s survey finds Americans favoured being a world leader in economic (68%), human rights (65%), and science and technology (62%) spheres, ahead of being a world military leader (60%). The long-lasting simultaneous military deployments in both Iraq and Afghanistan could contribute to shaping America's perception on where the government’s focus should be.
An American-First policy could also play into the hands of China, who continues to seek political and economic opportunities across Asia and Africa. Furthermore, as the Israel-Hamas conflicts continues, Iran could seek to strengthen its relationship with international partners.
Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has already spoken of his will to work closely with Iran. Speaking with Iranian senior leadership, Lukashenko added “The situation in the world is heating up. Our answer is: We should work more closely with each other, cooperate to counter these attacks.”
As for the war in Europe, there is no sign off an off ramp for Russia. As the conflict draws on, Ukraine may have to fastidiously to maintain the support from some EU member states, who themselves are dealing with a Smorgasbord of problems, from immigration and a growing narcotics problem.
Financial and military aid from the West continues for now, in particular from Germany and the United Kingdom. A report by the Independent newspaper, states Former defence secretary Ben Wallace has said he urged the Prime Minister to increase military support to Ukraine by more than £2 billion — a rise of 50 per cent. Britain’s defence secretary, Grant Shapps’ suggestion that British troops could train forces in Ukraine has been played down by Rishi Sunak.
Predicting the duration of the conflict in Ukraine remains uncertain, but that has not deterred Hungary from reaching for Russias rich energy resources. According to the Associated Press, Putin met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Beijing. The two leaders discussed how Hungary can exploit Russia’s energy exports.
As Russia, China and Iran continues to leverage economic and political opportunities, the US must first address its internal politics and then prioritise how and where it intends to project its foreign influence. Next year’s Presidential election could change the course of America’s overseas ambitions. At this moment, the United States should stand firmly with its allies in their ongoing commitment to Ukraine.