US & UK Election Polls: Biden's Struggles, Labour extends Lead
Reform UK lead the Tories in the opinion poll
Welcome to Friday’s edition of The Woz Report, a place to spark conversation. In this edition we’re going to discuss what’s happening in both the US and UK polls, including how the US views President Biden. It’s not been a particularly good few weeks for those in the race to lead the free world.
Donald Trump is awaiting sentencing following his hush money trial. On the other side of the aisle, President Biden is accused of mental decline. Per The Times, 63 per cent of respondents told an AP poll in March that they were not confident in Biden’s mental capability to serve effectively as president. On this side of the Atlantic, Prime Minister is still apologising for his early departure from Normandy. So let’s look at what’s going on in the polls, starting with the US Election race.
US Election Race
It appears Donald Trumps guilty verdict has not harmed his chances of re-election. The Hill’s opinion poll has Trump at 45 percent, leading Biden by 0.8 percent. ABC’s Project 538 claims that 58 percent of Americans disapprove of the current president.
538 data shows Biden’s approval rating is at it’s second lowest since he took office (38 percent). On 7 July 2022, Biden’s approval rating fell to 37.9 percent. Biden’s highest approval rating came on 22 March 2021, with 55 percent.
To put that into context, President George W. Bush’s approval rating peaked at 86.1 percent on day 250 of his tenure. President Barrack Obama’s approval rating peaked at 66.6 percent approval on 21 of his tenure. More recently President Trump’s approval peaked at a meagre 46.7 percent on his 11th day in office.
I believe the US election race will go down to the wire. The Republicans don’t trust Biden, with the Democrats feeling that Trump is not fit to run for office either. Over in the UK, the general election outcome looks a certainty.
Labour Dominates UK Polls
YouGov’s latest poll puts Labour way out front with 37 percent, with Reform UK at 19 percent, one percent ahead of the Tories. Those numbers are hardly surprising when you consider what a terrible job the Conservatives did under Boris Johnson, and Liz ‘let’s tank the economy’ Truss.
When the Conservatives tried to bring the immigration narrative into the fold, they amplified Reform UK’s message that the current system is not working. Reform UK Leader, Nigel Farage has two main efforts, one to raise the profile of Reform UK while simultaneously chipping away at Conservative seats.
Rocky Road Politics
We’ve talked about the media scrutiny surrounding Biden, Trump and Sunak. Whilst the US general election looks like it’s heading for a photo finish, the UK election looks all but over, in favour of the Labour Party. The Tories are lagging behind like a three legged donkey, partly because of their disastrous record, and partly because of the rise of Reform UK. As they say, there’s never a dull moment in politics.
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