5 Macro Trends Threatening the Future of Food Security
Food security is dependent on a myriad of global mitigations
The United Nations reports the global population has breached 8 billion, with India on track to surpass China as the most populous country in 2023. The figure projected by the UN raises the question over food security. In this post, I’ll explain what food security is and the macro trends threatening it.
The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under 1 per cent in 2020. The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100. United Nations
Food is vital to life. In 1943, Abraham Maslow wrote in his ‘Theory of Human Motivation’ the human needs to arrange themselves in hierarchies of pre-potency. The first being basic, or physiological needs, and they include those that are vital for survival. Examples of physiological needs include:
Food
Water
Breathing (clean air)
Shelter
Sleep
Clothes
The examples listed can not be taken for granted, especially for citizens living in conflict zones, or in poverty. The urgency to protect food security is vital, especially as the world’s population continues to rise.
Food security is definition means that all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their food preferences and dietary needs for an active and healthy life. -by the United Nations’ Committee on World Food Security.
When you consider there are over 2,500 foodbanks in the UK, that’s more than the number of McDonald’s restaurants, thousands of UK citizens are not able to meet one of Maslow’s theory of basic needs, nor meet the UN’s definition on food security. That’s alarming for a developed nation. Let’s get into the 5 macro trends affecting food security.
Geopolitics -The War in Ukraine is disrupting wheat commodities
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted a myriad of supply chains, including wheat commodities. When demand for goods rise and supply is squeezed, trending price hikes tend to follow. According to Trading Economics, a bushel of wheat soared from $7.90 to $12.58 on 7th March, just days after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. Today, wheat is trading at $8.08 per bushel.
Of Ukraine’s 60 million hectares, roughly 42 million hectares is classified for agricultural use. Per World’s Top Exports, Ukraine produced 8.5 % of the world’s wheat ($8.7bn). Many African countries rely on Ukrainian imports of wheat.
It’s plausible Ukraine’s wheat output will drop in 2022. Fires in dry wheat fields are ubiquitous across Ukraine, sparked by indirect artillery fire. According to Radio Free Europe, Ukraine accused Russia of deliberately setting fire to food infrastructure in areas occupied by its military.
In October the United States accused Russia of weaponising food, when The Kremlin said it was suspending its participation in a United Nations-brokered deal to secure the export of Ukrainian grain out though the Black Sea.
It’s not the first time Russian maritime forces have disrupted food exports. In March, approximately 300 ships carrying food exports from Ukraine were also blocked from leaving the Black Sea.
Food security is also dependent on immigration policy. A tightening up on visa requirements could further restrict the flow of migrants needed to work on farmland to pick fruit and vegetables.
In 2020, the Sheffield Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Sheffield estimated that UK agriculture depends on about 70,000 migrant workers each year. Informigrants.net
Logistics and production challenges affects consumer confidence
How many of you have altered your shopping habits in 2022? Soaring inflation has affected the amount of goods placed in a typical shopping basket, with the latest Consumer Price Index at its highest since 1981. Staple food goods such as milk, eggs and potatoes have risen to over 11%, up one point from October.
The cost of logistics and production affects those prices. Brent is trading under $86 a barrel, yet inflated fuel prices continues drive up the cost of production. Farmers have also seen a 45% rise in animal feed.
Bare shelves normally associated with developing countries have become ubiquitous throughout UK supermarkets. Buying a six-pack of water (shipped in rPET bottles of course) is no longer taken for granted. I could not find any during a three-week period in the summer.
Shoppers can be forgiven as milk prices continue to soar. Dairy farmers face the same issues as other businesses, because they have to pass on a rise in fuel and energy prices to the off-taker, which in turn is passed on to the consumer.
The UK average farm-gate milk price for September 2022 is 48.86 pence per litre (ppl). This represents a 3.8% (1.78 ppl) increase on August 2022 and a 55% increase on the same month last year - Gov.uk
As population numbers swell, so does the demand for basic food goods. The pressure continues to mount on agriculture, increasing demand on energy supplies. Finding balance between food production and moving away from fossil fuels is a challenge.
Expectations on Responsible Technology: Do we trust genetically modified food?
The jury is still out on Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) foods. According to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), most GMO crops grown in the United States are fed to animals. If you eat meat, there is a good chance you have indirectly eaten GMO crops.
Blight disease affects potatoes by rotting them from the inside out, resulting in millions of spuds being thrown away. Per Wired Magazine, blight-resistant potatoes are growing in Cambridgeshire, England, but they are not fit for consumption, because GMO foods are subject to strict regulations under EU and UK law.
Despite the strict regulations, R&D departments continue to find ways of expediting crops to meet global demands. The technology is often called “modern biotechnology” or “gene technology” (World Health Organisation).
Matt Reynolds writing for Wired magazine claims the FDA has approved A Lab-Grown Meat Startup. The FDA’s approval is one thing, consumer confidence is another. There is a long way to go for lab-grown meat, but in the future, it could ease pressures on the agriculture industry, alternately it could put farmers out of business. Butchers shouldn’t worry about re-skilling, just yet.
Technology plays a vital role in food production. Modern tractors are fitted with GPS, accurate to less than five metres, improving accuracy on planting and harvesting, reducing waste and costs. Mobile apps, temperature and moisture sensors, aerial images and advanced weather data allows business to be more efficient, a key to meeting global demands for food.
Climate change mitigation or adaptation?
Whether you believe in climate change or not, we have to listen to the science. The agriculture industry must adapt to warmer weather, more flooding, droughts and pest control. Flooding mitigation is dependent on investments in civil infrastructure, a problem for the Global South.
A study by NASA claims maize crop yields could decline by 24% and wheat could increase by 17% in eight years time. NASA based the advanced scientific model on projected temperature changes, rainfall and the amount of surface carbon dioxide concentrations. The climate model known as HadGEM2 indicated corn crop yields could drop by 24% to just over 600 million tons by 2050, with a 3% reduction in wheat yields.
Mounting pressures on the ocean and fish stocks
Our oceans and seas are under constant threat from pollution and over fishing. If you’ve ever eaten fish, the chances are you’ve involuntary digested microplastics. Fish is high in Omega-3, a fatty acid beneficial to a healthy heart. On the flip side, there is overwhelming scientific evidence of microplastics in over 1,400 species of fish.
According to a 2017 UN report, there are more than 51 trillion microplastic particles in the sea, more than 500 times the number of stars in the Milky Way. Forbes.com
Eight decades of plastic production has taken its toll on the environment. 4ocean, an ocean cleanup company dedicated to ending the ocean plastic crisis, has removed over 11,400,000 kilograms of plastics from our seas, beaches and rivers.
Ocean Cleanup, a Dutch non profit recently launched its fleet of $111m interceptor series - engineered to tackle the increase of ocean plastics. The team also unveiled its Interceptor Barge on the LA River.
Ocean Cleanup, 4Ocean and other organisations are working hard to remove the build up of ocean plastic, but more investment is needed in waste management across developing nations.
Plastic isn’t the only threat to the world’s largest biome. A rise in acidification caused by climate change threatens all marine life. Rising global populations threatens stock numbers of species such as cod and haddock because they do not reproduce quickly enough. Atlantic cod bounced back after facing extinction in the mid 1900s because of over fishing. Aggressive commercial fishing indiscriminately catches sea turtles, dolphins, sea birds, sharks, and other animals.
Alarmingly, Alaska had to cancel its 2022 Bering Sea snow crab harvest for the first time in history. Warming seas and higher rates of acidity are thought to explain the disappearance of over 1 billion crabs.
Geopolitics goes way beyond the littoral, and conservation efforts are reliant on government and commercial cooperation. The United Nations is attempting to address the situation under Sustainability Goal 14, Life under Water.
Summary
Conflict, climate change, plant disease, and a lack of workers all attribute to global food security fears. Food waste is also a problem. While some people are unable to have access three square meals a day, others have the luxury of indulging in a Smorgasbord of gluttony.
Food security is being squeezed from all angles. Global cooperation, education and economic stability is needed if the world wants to end hunger.
Thank you for reading the Woz Report. If you liked my article, please share it.
John is a sustainability professional, with experience of running operations in hostile environments.