2024 Election Insights: Explore Voting Dilemmas

Labour have extended their lead in the opinion polls

In today's convoluted landscape of modernity, where issues like crime, healthcare, education, climate change, and social justice clamour for attention, it's evident that our political system is faltering amid partisan disputes and unfulfilled promises. The looming question is: how do we vote in the upcoming general election?

Before writing this post, I spoke to a good friend and asked for his opinion on voting options for the pending general election. He once worked for a former British Prime Minster, and his take on the British political situation was very clear. “You and I are having a meaningful debate on the state of British politics. That’s not something Labour and the Tories are having.”

Historical Voting

Reflecting on my voting history spanning back to 1997, where I've supported both Labour and Conservative parties, I'm faced with the dilemma of whether to vote based on the party, its leader, or their manifesto. Recent events have highlighted the volatility of party leadership and the recurrent failure to deliver on manifesto pledges.

For instance, the Conservatives have fallen short on key promises such as immigration reduction, deficit cuts, budget balancing, and education reforms. Despite repeated commitments, issues like elder care and social care remain unresolved, illustrating a systemic problem transcending party lines.

Tackling Crime

Crime remains a top concern, with statistics often failing to capture the full extent of the problem. Recent reports highlight the surge in knife crime, particularly in regions like the West Midlands, fueled by gang conflicts and social media disputes. Moreover, organised crime persists, with its roots deep in our society.

West Midlands police recorded 177 knife crimes for every 100,000 people in the year to September 2023, while Cleveland recorded 159, and the Metropolitan police recorded 158. Police-recorded knife crime in London did rise by a fifth in the last year, and is up compared with when Boris Johnson left office, but it still remains below the pre-pandemic peak of 164 crimes for every 100,000 people. The Guardian

Both Labour and the Conservatives present their plans to tackle crime. Labour promises to boost community policing by 13,000, whilst targeting repeat offenders with robust measures, while the Conservatives pledge to increase police presence and enhance prison infrastructure. However, these proposals offer little departure from the status quo, leaving much to be desired.

“We’ll require police forces to target dangerous repeat offenders with the tactics and tools normally reserved for counter-terror and serious organised crime investigations, to get serious perpetrators off our streets.” Labour manifesto.

In the opinion polls, YouGov reports Labour are +4 at 48 percent, way ahead of the Conservatives at 18 percent. Labour might be feeling buoyant about the recent opinion polls, but are they getting too comfortable? Labour lost 33 percentage points of vote share in areas that are majority Muslim in the recent local elections, according to exclusive analysis for ITV News by Number Cruncher Politics.

Green Issues

At a recent sustainability forum gathering for professionals within the built environment, a prevailing sentiment emerged: the expectation of robust environmental leadership from either the current or future government is notably absent. Global politics, immigration, crime and concerns over the NHS were deemed as overriding factors for environmental issues.

The Green Party added 74 councillors across England at the local elections, but will the party get my vote at the next election? I’m a sustainability consultant, and I’m not convinced by the party’s messages.

Investing in infrastructure is vital to the economy, but the Greens are likely to spend billions on subsidised bus services. Under their tenure, the Greens pledge to introduce a £1 single fare on all local bus routes in the country and guarantee free travel for everyone under 22. They would pay for the plan from a carbon tax and by cancelling £27 billion pounds worth of national road building schemes. I’d argue the money would be better spent on the construction of cycle highways outside of Britain’s main cities.

Another of the Green Party’s pledges sounds promising on paper, but I have doubts over the deliverables. The plan is to insulate 10 million council homes over a 10 -yeaer period. The Greens claim they will achieve the audacious project by investing in £250bn. The pledge does not say if a feasibility study has been conducted to assess the construction skills gap needed to deliver such an ambitious project.

The Green Party has called for mandatory solar photovoltaics panels to be fitted on all appropriate new buildings and for all new homes to be built to Net Zero Carbon Buildings Standards. Achieving Green Building certification is expensive, and requires dedicated sustainability professionals, of which there are further skills shortages.

Whist solar panels might offer a short term solution, more than 3 quarters of the worlds solar PV output comes from China. The Scope 3 carbon emissions from the numbers needed has not been factored in to the Greens’ pledge. Nor has the social value within the supply chain. Furthermore, there is a global e-waste crisis, and the Green’s must demonstrate they can repair, replace, recover and recycle panels, which have a short life span (approximately 10-15 years). Although the Green Party has made political strides in recent years, some of their polices need revising.

As I ponder my vote, I find minimal encouragement from the mainstream parties' stances on crime or other pressing issues. With a myriad of challenges ahead, the next elected Prime Minister faces an arduous task in navigating the complexities of governance.

I’ve asked myself whether abstaining from voting is a sensible strategy to signal dissatisfaction with mainstream politics and challenge the status quo. I’m not convinced abstaining will work. We may have plenty of time to think about our options, as prime minister can call the next general election any time between now and 17 December 2024. Even he must realise disillusionment with the political system can lead to voter abstention.

Let me know your thoughts on the general election in the comments section. Are you’re an overseas reader? Is your country is facing similar challenges to Britain? Let me know in the comments section. Over to you.

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